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# "Unforeseeable" Doesn't Mean "Unimaginable"
- URL: https://internationalarbitrationobserver.com/unforeseeable-doesnt-mean-unimaginable/
- Published: 2026-09-13T18:50:17.000Z
- Updated: 2026-09-13T18:50:17.000Z
- Author: Pierluigi Salvati
- Tags: Commercial Arbitration

A cargo of Ukrainian corn never shipped. A war disrupted the inspection regime that let grain leave the Black Sea. In ADM Industries Centers Ltd (trading as ADM Israel) v Inerco Trade SA \[2026\] EWHC 1873 (Comm), an English judge just delivered a clean lesson on how courts shouldn't second-guess arbitrators.

Here's the story. Sellers had corn to ship out of Ukraine under the Black Sea Grain Initiative. Russian inspectors, without warning, stopped clearing ships for 11 days. The sellers said: this is force majeure, we're delayed. The buyers rejected that notice and insisted delivery was still due on time. The sellers then treated that rejection as the buyers walking away from the deal, and cancelled the contract themselves. A GAFTA tribunal sided with the sellers and awarded them $3.12 million. The buyers appealed to the English Commercial Court on three points of law.

1️⃣ What does "unforeseeable" mean? The buyers argued: if you can imagine it happening at all, it's foreseeable, so force majeure doesn't apply. The judge disagreed. In a force majeure clause, "unforeseeable" doesn't mean "theoretically possible", it means "so unlikely that no one could reasonably expect you to plan around it." Short inspection delays happen sometimes; an 11-day shutdown didn't. The tribunal got this right.

2️⃣ Does a late notice kill your force majeure claim? This is the practical takeaway for anyone drafting or relying on these clauses. The tribunal had said: the sellers' notice came a bit late, but nobody was harmed by the delay, so it doesn't matter. The judge disagreed. The contract uses the words "provided that" : that's the language of a strict condition. If you miss the deadline, you lose the right, prejudice or not. Sympathy for the sellers' situation cannot rewrite a bright-line deadline. This part of the case is now sent back to the tribunal to work out the exact dates.

3️⃣ Can you stack one extension on top of another? Yes. If a force majeure delay pushes back your shipping deadline, and then you separately need the standard 8-day grace period, you get both. The alternative would have meant sellers who invoke force majeure end up worse off than sellers who never do, which makes no commercial sense.

Two of the tribunal's three findings survive; the notice point goes back for more fact-finding. A tidy reminder that in commodities arbitration, deadlines mean what they say, even when the world is falling apart around you.